Analysis of the female family descent tree using the Markovian Binary Tree
Descent trees generated by individual women vary from one country to another. These differences can be investigated using stochastic models. We apply matrix analytic methods and show that the time-inhomogeneous Markovian binary tree model is suitable for modelling the lifetime of a woman and the long-term behaviour of a female family line generated by a single woman. Using this model, we introduce a formula to compute the mean family size generated by a newborn woman. The mean family size is analysed across selected time periods for which we also perform cross country comparisons. We also introduce a criterion to analyse the chance of survival of a family line generated by a woman of a given nationality.